Ye Old Crow's Nest

The Benefits o' Better Ocean Weather Forecastin'

Like atmospheric variability, variability in ocean conditions, such as sea surface temperature 'n salinity 'n sea ice cover 'n thickness, can 'ave major effects on human activities 'n ecosystems both at sea 'n on land. Fer example, this variability, also called “ocean weather,” can influence the occurrence o' fair-weather coastal floodin', which disrupts transportation 'n degrades coastal infrastructure around the world. Meanwhile, sea ice movement in an increasingly ice-free Arctic Ocean poses risks t' high-latitude shippin'. Elsewhere, changes in ocean upwellin' can enhance coastal commercial fishin' activity, whereas marine heat waves can disrupt fisheries 'n coral communities. As wit' atmospheric weather forecasts, knowin' about ocean weather in advance can help minimize disruptions t' everyday public 'n commercial activity, keep coastal 'n maritime workers safe, 'n aid marine conservation efforts.

Unlike atmospheric weather, howe'er, which evolves on daily timescales, ocean weather typically evolves on weekly t' monthly timescales. Slowly varyin' ocean conditions can regulate atmospheric weather, so includin' ocean feedbacks in atmospheric forecastin' models can extend these models’ predictive skill by several days. Ongoin' research be continually improvin' representations o' ocean initial states (conditions at the start o' a model calculation) 'n processes in coupled ocean-atmosphere forecast models. As a result, they 'ave the potential t' forecast ocean weather accurately weeks in advance—on subseasonal t' seasonal (S2S) timescales—'n provide needed guidance t' stakeholders in communities 'n in marine 'n coastal industries, as well as t' scientists, conservationists, 'n others.

Requirements o' ocean weather forecasts vary dependin' on wha' information a particular stakeholder needs fer operational decision makin'. Fully understandin' the benefits o' S2S ocean forecasts t' society requires an evaluation o' the skill o' these forecasts in the contexts o' these informational needs. These evaluations will also fundamentally improve S2S forecasts overall by advancin' knowledge o' how initial conditions in an ocean model 'n ocean model physics affect forecast skill.

Here we describe recent advances in the science of ocean weather forecasting and walk through examples in which its application is increasingly important as the planet’s climate changes and human demands on Earth system services grow.